April 1, 2009
Communications Markets in Nigeria
I estimate that the Nigerian telecom market generated $8.4bn in service revenue by year-end 2008, a 23% year-on-year growth (in US dollar terms). Since liberalization of the market in 2003, the telecom industry has experienced abnormal growth rates, fueled by several new entrants in the past year. With a large population of about 150m and mobile penetration at just 42% by year-end 2008, the Nigerian market still holds tremendous opportunity for growth.
Network quality in Nigeria is still a major problem, but we expect this situation to improve as operator network rollout plans come to fruition. We also expect growth to stabilize over the next five years at a 5.8% CAGR. IPTV, fixed VoIP, broadband Internet and mobile data are anticipated to be the fastest growth segments with a CAGR of more than 29%. Mobile and fixed voice, although growing more slowly, will dominate the balance of services revenue due to their relatively important weight in the overall Nigerian communications market.
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